CBS FALL LINE-UP 2018/2019: The Ultimate Nielsen Ratings Predictions for Returning TV Shows

The "Big Four" of broadcast television networks have been battling it out in terms of competing for the highest Nielsen ratings all year round, but the battle is fiercest when the fall season comes around when most of their rosters of scripted shows return and compete for the top spot in the prime-time slot.

• CBS is considered as a powerhouse in the broadcasting scene, with scripted shows ranging from NCIS and Elementary to sitcom hits such as The Big Bang theory and Mom. The general audience of the network tends to be older with regard to age in contrast to other networks but nonetheless draws massive numbers on a weekly basis in total live+ same day viewership with a moderate performance in the key demographic (18-49).

CBS has a total of 18 scripted shows returning next year, a sizeable amount will likely make it due to their obvious weight and high ratings.

• The obvious survivors of the CBS 2018/2019 Season:

Past performance is a major indicator of survivability*


Key demographic= number of viewers between the age of 18 and 49*

The total average viewership numbers are in M= Million(s)*

1. The Big Bang Theory: this is a no-brainer, the hit sitcom starring Jim Parsons and Johnny Galecki brings in the largest numbers and is the highest rated show on CBS. The week-to-week ratings were stable and consistent all season long. the Average season ratings for 2017/2018 in the live+ same day was 14.041M total viewers with 2.74 in the key demographic (18-49).
   
2. Young Sheldon: The Big Bang Theory spin-off and Sheldon Cooper-centric has drawn colossal numbers in its freshman year and picked up an early renewal back in september. The show took a few weeks to find its footing in terms of numbers but settled in the end on 2.21 in the key demo (18-49) and 12.515M average of total viewers. The sitcom might see a moderate drop in the numbers next season but it will eventually survive due to the young audience it attracts and the fact that it has become the second-highest rated show on the network.
   
3. NCIS: The seventh longest-running TV show among scripted primetime television series with 15 seasons and 354 episodes, NCIS is one of the network's veterans and the most consistent in terms of ratings throughout its run on  the air. Even with one of its pivotal stars Pauley Perrette exiting , the show generated respectable numbers in total live+ same day average viewership with 13.045M and a 1.41 in the key demo (18-49) thus insuring its survivability for next season and beyond.
   
4. MOM: The Anna Faris-led sitcom has ticked up slightly- from last year with 1.46 in the key demo (18-49) and a total viewership average of 8.760M compared to the 2016/2017 season leading to the conclusion of its survival for at least the next couple of seasons, added to that is the consistent number of young audiences it attracts on a weekly basis even with a slight year to year decrease, but nevertheless, MOM still reserves a spot as one of the valuable players in the CBS roster.
   
5. BULL: In its sophomore year, the legal drama inspired by the early days of Dr. Phil's career, with a new showrunner, has seen a slight downtick but still held strong enough for the network to renew it and by the numbers there are no signs of the show being canceled anytime soon due to the solid audience it amassed during its freshman year. Bull fared well in the key demographic (18-49) with 1.19 and a total viewership average in live+ same day of 10.618M. A decrease in the desired demo will likely occur next season but the total viewership is expected to hold strong thanks to a dedicated senior audience.
   
6. BLUE BLOODS: The Tom Selleck-led procedural has already established an audience after eight seasons on air, although an older one that keeps on drifting away from the desired younger viewers with a mediocre 0.91 in the key demo (19-49), but the show is still considered as one of the top rated among CBS's lineup due to the respectable average viewership of 9.078M in the 2017/2018 season making its survival a safe bet.
   
7. NCIS: NEW ORLEANS: The procedural has already established a faithful audience after running for four season on CBS, with its new time-slot, the NCIS spin-off performed well, although it lost some of its audience, it still drew a 0.96 in the key demo (18-49) and an impressive 8.855M in total live+ same day average viewers which allows the show to stay on air for the 2018/2019 season and for years to come.
   
8. HAWAII FIVE-0: With two of its pivotal stars exiting the show over pay inequality, the police procedural still held strong in the key demo (18-49) with 0.95 and a total average viewership of 8.289M in live+ same day, but that can't be said about the upcoming 2018/2019 season but its survival for at least two or three more seasons is likely due to the dedicated audience the show boasts.
   
9. NCIS: LOS ANGELES: Another NCIS spin-off, although a longer running one with nine seasons on air. The procedural starring Chris O'Donnell held strong in the 2017/2018 season with minor ups and downs throughout its 24-episode run, it averaged a 0.91 in the key demo (18-49) and 7.904 in total viewership average. The show is not expected to be off the air anytime soon.

• Shows on the bubble for the 2018/2019 season:
  

1. LIFE IN PIECES: The family sitcom starring Dianne Wiest managed to stay on air thanks to the young demographic (18-49) of 1.11 it attracted in the latest season with a shy total viewership average of 6.437. The survival of Life in Pieces hinges on the young demo and in case the ratings drop it might get the axe come the cancel/renewal period late in the spring of the 2018/2019 season which is highly probable but a chance of survival is mildly possible.
   
2. SEAL TEAM: The David Boreanaz-led military drama performed well enough for the network in its first season, but a 1.01 in the key demo (18-49) and a total viewership average of 6.660M in its freshman year is not a good sign of sustainability due to the known fact that shows rarely grow season-to-season. Unless Seal Team manages to attract more viewers through streaming services in the summer hiatus, the show might not survive through the 2018/2019 season and beyond but the network has high hopes for the star power of the Buffy and Angel Alum.
   
3. CRIMINAL MINDS: After the firing of one of its stars Thomas Gibson for behavior issues on set in season 12 and Shemar Moore leaving after season 11 , Criminal Minds still managed to score a renewal for 2017/2018 in which the show scored less-than impressive ratings in the key demo (18-49) with 0.99 and an average viewership of 5.730M, the overall poor performance runs the risk of cancelation in the 2018/2019 season. 
   
4. MAN WITH A PLAN: The sitcom's second entry on air did not perform as CBS had originally hoped but still secured a third season renewal. Man With a Plan failed to attract new viewers and the key demo (18-49) decreased with 0.99 and an average viewership of 5.769M in the second season leading to the probability of the Matt LeBlanc-led sitcom's inevitable demise in the 2018/2019 season unless the Friends star somehow manages to attract younger audiences.
   
5. SWAT: Criminal Minds fan favorite Shemar Moore made a comeback to CBS through SWAT, but this come back won't last for longer. The show's ratings for the first season were not by any means impressive, it scored an average of 0.94 in the key demo (18-49) and 5.894M in average viewership in live+same day ratings. The action series ranked 14th in the desired demo and 17th in total viewership among CBS's roster which in turn indicates the low survivability rate going foward but the shimmer of hope lies in the place Shemar Moore holds in the hearts of CBS consumers.

• Shows on the brink of cancelation in the 2018/2019 season:
  

1. MacGyver: There will not be enough paper clips to save the day for the MacGyver reboot, despite impressive ratings in the first season, the sophomore run of the show did not attract any new viewers and instead lost a considerable amount in the key demo (18-49) with a shy 0.83 and an average viewership of 6.862M in the live+ same day ratings. The action-adventure program's chances of survival beyond the third upcoming season are dismal at best.
   
2. INSTINCT: Yet another crime procedural from the network, calling Instinct's ratings in its freshman year mediocre would be an overstatement, it averaged a near rock-bottom 0.63 in the key demo (18-49) and an average viewership of 6.664M in live+ same day ratings, but CBS renewed it anyway in the hopes that the numbers would pick up in the second season and looking at the numbers, it seems far-fetched for the series to make it past the second season.
   
3. MADAM SECRETARY: The political drama has been on air for four seasons and it keeps on shedding viewers as it moves foward, the numbers it amassed in the 2017/2018 season were not of the CBS caliber of continuously renewed shows, it brought in 0.63 in the key demo (18-49) and an average viewership of 6.163M in live+same day ratings, leading to questions about the show's survival for another season and making it highly unlikely, but maybe the guest spot for Hillary Clinton the show secured in the 5th season might save the day for Madam Secretary.
   
4. RANSOM: The mystery thriller was magically renewed on CBS for a second season. In its freshman entry, Ransom performed to the level of a low-tier network in terms of ratings with a 0.26 in the key demo (18-49) and a blasphemous 2.447M in average viewership, but its salvation came from being a joint production and parternship between multiple networks as well as performing well abroad. Still, looking ahead, there is little to no hope for Ransom to survive past the 2018/2019 season.